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wrt to the poll lead, the general election figure you should be comparing is the GB one, excluding Northern Ireland which is not covered by the opinion polls. The Conservative share was 33.2% so the increase since the general election is 2.8 percentage points, not 3.7.
Kevin - thanks for the correction
Peter
Much enjoyed your analysis. Keep it up!
At least Cameron has achieved job 1 - the complete sidelining of the Lib Dems. Where have they gone? No one hears anything from them. They send out dozens of press releases a day but no one is listening!