Against early declarations of support

It's tempting to make a choice early in the current leadership race, but it might be wise to reserve judgement
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Both Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne's campaigns boast considerable rosters of declared supporters. Am I the only one who hasn't made his mind up yet?

The most recent YouGov poll suggests not - of Lib Dem members, just 16% are said to back Huhne with 14% choosing Clegg. This means that the overwhelming majority do not yet have a preference, although we might want to question just how effective YouGov is at polling on Lib Dem-related issues.

Such a high level of indecision is not a bad thing. There are good reasons for holding off from making a decision - at least a public decision - until much later on.

Both candidates have a lot to prove

In the last election, we had two candidates with long track records - Ming Campbell and Simon Hughes. Mark Oaten and Chris Huhne were, in relative terms, unknown quantities. Nobody knew how they would turn out when placed under the spotlight. Huhne emerged with his reputation enhanced; Oaten emerged with his in tatters. I would argue that Huhne is still relatively unknown, and that Clegg is in a similar position. Both are undoubtedly intelligent, sensible and have a good degree of presentational skills. But there must be a lot about both men which we don't yet know. Common sense dictates that we wait and see what they have to say for themselves before making a judgement.

Declaring support makes you a partisan

As much as we may try to avoid bias, there is a strong tendency for anyone who has publicly declared support for a candidate to continue to support that candidate even if that candidate performs poorly. It becomes easier to ignore a candidate's failings, and if the candidate's weaknesses become too apparent, there is a temptation to compensate for this by attacking the rival candidate. Many psychological studies have shown that we become biased in favour of our earlier stated opinions, even if we would no longer make the same choice in secret. It's very easy to say 'I will support candidate X'; it's very hard to say 'I have changed my mind'.

Candidates need criticism, not cheerleading

This is a truly pivotal moment for the Liberal Democrats. The usual caveats about wild opinion poll swings aside, the next election looks like being a very tough one. Whoever is leader, they are going to face a harsh environment; the media will be all too happy to ignore the Lib Dems entirely, and both Labour and Conservative leaders have made Lib Dem voters their target. The new leader is going to have to stand up to criticism and give a good account of why anyone should listen to him, let alone vote for the party. I'm confident that both Chris and Nick are capable of this, but I want to know who can do it best. To that end, we need to put both of them through a very tough process, almost a trial by ordeal, to see who emerges intact.

To do this, without descending into negative arguments, requires a degree of impartiality which might be at odds with public declarations of support for either candidate. I'd be very wary of leading bloggers and others who might be expected to play a role in scrutinising the candidates becoming cheerleaders for either side. Of course, there's nothing wrong with having a preference and explaining the reasons for that preference, but I think it's best to leave open the possiibility of a change of mind too.


Comments

On 28 October 2007 - 10:29am, JoeOtten (not verified) wrote:

Yes, unless you have particular reasons - as I do - it is better not to declare. It is also a little bit odd to see supporters of one candidate grumbling about what the other hasn't (yet) said, when we are still right at the start of the campaign - as if everybody ought to be able to make up their mind already.


On 28 October 2007 - 8:44pm, Matthew Huntbach (not verified) wrote:

I decided to declare for Huhne because I'm very concerned about the way the party seems to be getting railroaded into agreeing to Clegg as leader. Although I've made no secret of the fact I really fail to understand what it is that people find so impressive about Clegg, I'd have preferred not to actually say I was supporting Huhne, and wouldn't have done so had the two candidates been receiving approximately equal support in the media and party. In many ways it's the smugness of the Clegg supporters who seem to think their man's so obviously the best they don't even have to say why that has turned me to the other. After all, one of the reasons I'm a Liberal Democrat is because I'm the sort of person who when told "it's obvious, this is what you must choose" says "hey, I want to look at the alternatives". By increasing Huhne's list of supporters, I'm helping make it clear there's a real contest here which I want to see pushed through to the end, not a token contest where we all know who's going to be the winner.


On 29 October 2007 - 7:36pm, Rob Knight wrote:

That's a fair enough point. I'm not sure if Clegg supporters are all that 'smug' though. Most seem to have a genuine conviction in their belief that he's the right man for the job, but most are quite positive about Huhne too, and acknowledge the need for a proper contest. In comparison to 2006, when people were openly calling for a Ming 'coronation', this contest feels a lot more open and friendly.