opinion polls

Morning papers: With enemies like this, who needs friends?

Peter Welch — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 09:12:07 +0000

Ah yes, Lord Owen, a man like Orson Welles, condemned to live his life backwards has pronounced on Ming.

This is the way the Herald reports it:

In an interview with the Parliamentary Monitor magazine, the former Labour Foreign Secretary describes the Liberal Democrat leader as "only a couple of years younger" than himself and argued Sir Menzies should be replaced by a "young Turk". Lord Owen is 68. Sir Menzies is 65.

The cross-bench peer suggested change should "happen before the next general election", and noted: "It is a pity they have a leader of the older generation."

Tony Blair is 53, Gordon Brown is 55, and David Cameron is 40.

Lord Owen highlighted the credentials of Chris Huhne, 52, the party's environment spokesman. Last year, he failed in his bid to challenge Sir Menzies for the party leadership following the resignation of Charles Kennedy, 47, who reliquished the top job after admitting to a drink problem.

"Chris Huhne has produced some very good ideas on the environment and it was a thoroughly good thing for him to challenge for the leadership," said the peer.

Lord Owen's intervention will not be welcomed by the leadership.

On the last point, I think they may have it wrong: Being attacked by Owen is a badge of honour. If Owen had spoken out during the leadership campaign, Ming´s majority would have been even bigger.

There is more unambiguously good news for Ming in the papers as well. The Independent has poll of polls for January showing that

Tony Blair's unpopularity has dragged Labour down to its lowest rating since the last general election, according to the results of the latest monthly "poll of polls" for The Independent.

The Conservatives averaged 37 per cent in the opinion polls taken in January, the same as in December, but Labour dropped two points to 32 per cent while the Liberal Democrats were up three points to 20 per cent.

The latest opinion poll in the Times follows the trend of the last five polls in putting Lib Dem support up since December. Rather oddly, the big losers are the Tories, down 3% to 36% - towards the lower end of their range in recent months.

Cameron: In the footsteps of Hague, IDS and Howard.

Peter Welch — Sun, 26 Nov 2006 08:28:09 +0000

Cameron's big argument is that he is popular - even if the Tory brand is looking worse for wear. His narrative has been that he is "new", popular with women, a change. There is something unlikely in this claim. Cameron seems to be the Tory from central casting. And he seems to have modelled himself on Blair . But the argument has impressed some of the press.

Let's start by saying that the Tories under Cameron are doing better than under Howard. On average they have been about 4% higher during 2006 than in the equivalent period in 2005. Anthony Wells has identified two points at which the Tory fortunes improved: the election of Cameron; and the relatively good, relatively well-spun Tory local election results. But when you are comparing the two years consider the other factors too.

Labour had a honeymoon period after the General Election. Many voters seemed to think they had been sufficiently punished by losing Hornsey and Wood Green, Cambridge, Manchester Withington, etc (to name a few random Labour losses).

Liberal Democrats managed to generate the occasional unfavourable headline between December 2005 and February 2006.

And Labour have suffered more from their cash/loans for peerages scandal than have the Tories. (It is the job of a Conservative Party to ensure rich men get honours. It should be the job of Labour to stop it happening.)

So you can ask yourself whether the Tories have done all that well in the cirucmstances. And my answer to that question - for some time now - is that Cameron has had a press to die for, but a more muted response from voters.

This is borne out by the MORI poll in the Observer this morning. The article comments that

David Cameron's satisfaction ratings among British voters have plummeted lower than Tony Blair's, a new Ipsos Mori poll reveals, raising fresh questions over whether his rebranding of the party has worked.

The article spells out just how profound the doubts are

The revelation that only 25 per cent of the electorate consider themselves 'satisfied' with Cameron's performance as leader of the opposition - rising only to 45 per cent among Tory voters, down from 60 per cent in February - will be a blow to his inner circle, given that it suggests a similar trajectory to his failed predecessors Howard, Iain Duncan Smith and William Hague. The most common reason for dissatisfaction was lack of clarity about his policies.

Damagingly, voters who previously approved of Cameron are now starting to turn against him, according to Mori founder Sir Robert Worcester. 'David Cameron's sliding satisfaction levels are comparable to his predecessors,' he said. 'Since his election as Tory leader, nearly all the "don't knows" who have made up their minds have decided they are dissatisfied with his performance. This month there has been a shift, and he is beginning to turn off those who had thought they were satisfied with the job he's been doing.

In recent weeks there has been much attention given to Cameron's apparent success among women. The main stimulus was the last Populus poll. This showed overall figures of Conservatives 36%, Labour 33%, and Liberal Democrats 20% - so a modest lead for the Tories. But the figure for female voters was much more striking: Conservatives 37%, Labour 31%, Liberal Democrats 20%.

So is Cameron attractive to women, or does he put men off? Anthony Wells went through the figures and suggested that it might be random:

if you look at the gender breaks in Populus’s polls there is no obvious pattern, it bounces up and down from month to month. Back in April the Conservative lead amognst women was also 6 points higher than amongst men, but come July the Tory lead was 8 points higher amongst men.

ICM’s gender splits don’t show a steady pattern either - in their October poll male and female voting intention was almost identical, but in their two previous polls the Conservative lead was far, far larger amongst men than women. In their last poll for the Sunday Telegraph the Conservatives had a 15 point lead amongst men and a 2 point lead amongst women. In their September poll for the Guardian though, the Conservative lead was 10 points higher amongst women.

He went on to suggest that YouGov's figures show a fairly steady gender gap. And Mike Smithson on Politicalbetting used this to conclude "the Tories have made almost no progress amongst men since November 2004 which should be worrying for the party."

I haven't much confidence in YouGov. It has shown a divergent pattern over the last year from the more authoriative converntional pollsters (ICM and Populus). There must be a possibility that its panel is either being infiltrated by the parties, or that simply being on the YouGov panel means that people pay more attention to politics than the rest of us.

And this latest poll also contradicts the view that Cameron has unlocked the female vote for the tories. MORI shows that "attempts to woo women and young people with initiatives such as promising tax relief on childcare, recruiting more female MPs or sympathising with hoodies appear to have failed, with the two per cent rise in Tory support since the general election - when Michael Howard was in charge - coming mostly from men and the middle-aged."

But Cameron is not a bloke's bloke. You can't picture him turning up in a white van to move out of Number 11 the way Kenneth Clarke did.

Don't take my word for it. We added a link to Tory blogger Ellee Seymour recently (ok, I know she's not a bloke). Here is what she says about Cameron

David Cameron now needs to focus on getting more votes from men, who may not buy his line about “hugging a hoodie”, however well intentioned it is. He needs to appear tougher and become a man’s man.

Amanda Platell took a similar line, arguing that

what is becoming increasingly clear is how utterly out of touch Cameron is with the harsh realities of life for millions of families in modern Britain.

Surrounded by a coterie of rich metrosexual advisers, the Old Etonian has proven yet again how staggeringly insulated from the real world his wealth, privilege and background have made him.

While we are the subject, this clip on Cameron the clothes horse won't have won over every White Van man. (It even seems his face counts against him with some people).

Labour bloggers at The Daily reckon that the isue is rather that Labour are losing female support.

Maybe Yougov are right, and Cameron is doing better among women than men, but the evidence that he holds a special attraction to voters (as opposed to sections of the press) is weak. And the Queen's Speech was a reminder that Cameron still tends to fluff the big occasions in the House of Commons. His reply to the budget was the shortest and most insubstantial reply in history. The television cameras captured a man ill at ease, turning to his own benches for support, and with his timing awry.

We are approaching the end of Cameron's first year. More and more people are going to be asking why Cameron is not doing better. At some point soon they are going to stop blaming his party, and start blaming him.

Another day, another poll

Peter Welch — Wed, 25 Oct 2006 07:37:18 +0100

ICM puts the parties at

Tories 39%
Labour 29%
Lib Dems 22%.

Apparently this is hung parliament territory.

Not the end, not the beginning of the end, but perhaps the end of the honeymoon?

Peter Welch — Mon, 23 Oct 2006 18:01:19 +0100

Google shows a new kind of headline for Cameron

Cameron's approval ratings slide
Guardian Unlimited, UK - 4 hours ago
The Conservative leader, David Cameron, during a visit to Hackney, east London, on Monday October 23 2006. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/WPA rota/PA. ...

Poll shows Cameron losing his shine
Scotsman, United Kingdom - 5 hours ago
THE gloss is coming off David Cameron ten months after he became Tory Leader just like his three predecessors, a new poll reveals today. ...

Poll: Britain's new Conservative Party leader sags in popularity
International Herald Tribune, France - 8 hours ago
AP. LONDON Opposition Conservative Party leader David Cameron's approval rating has sagged in Britain, according to a poll published ...

Labour retakes lead over Conservatives: poll
Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates - 13 hours ago
LONDON - Britain’s ruling Labour Party has retaken the lead in a poll for the first time in six months, as the leader of the main opposition Conservative ...

Just a poll - but taking David Cameron into uncharted territory. Suddenly he is just another politician, and with the negative popularity figures to prove it.

The truth is that he never was as popular or successful as the press suggested. Now the headlines are changing too.

What this implies is that Cameron will have less leeway to modernise the Tories.

Not that he has got very far. The headlines about his "brave" A-list (and B-list) proposals have turned into the selection of a brace of Rees Moggs and and Sandys. This is scarcely a stepping stone to a new, more inclusive Tory party.

Tory tax proposals have revealed the truth of Cameron´s "NHS" slogan (it means No Hospital Safe).

Personally I blame the conference. What people saw of the Tories and of Cameron confirmed their worst fears. No one is arguing that he is finished. But after a year in which both Lib Dems and Labour have been playing with the self-destruct button, Cameron has little to show. Not even good headlines

Why aren't the Tories doing better?

Peter Welch — Fri, 06 Oct 2006 14:20:18 +0100