How can the Democrats blow it from here?

Peter Welch — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 22:46:11 +0100

The Wall Street Journal reports poll figures to die for for the Democrats.

Republicans are at a greater disadvantage heading toward Election Day than Democrats were 12 years ago just before voters ended their 40-year reign in Congress.

In October 1994, with the public fed up with scandals and the failure of President Clinton and his party's lawmakers to deliver in key areas such as health care, voters said by a nine-point margin -- 46% to 37% -- that they wanted Republicans to take control. That compares with the 15-point margin today in favor of Democrats' taking the reins.

This midterm, like 1994, is shaping up as a referendum on an unpopular president who isn't on the ballot, leaving his party to bear the brunt of voters' wrath. Mr. Bush, however, is even less popular than Mr. Clinton was as Election Day approached. Back then, 45% disapproved of Mr. Clinton's job performance, compared with Mr. Bush's 57% disapproval rating.

The new poll also suggests the advantages that have helped Republicans sustain their majority in Congress -- gerrymandered House districts, a well-oiled turnout machine and the national-security issue -- all have been somewhat neutralized by the political winds buffeting the party. Democrats need to gain a net 15 seats for a House majority, and they now have polls showing leads in about 40 Republican-held districts from New England through the Mountain West -- with none of their own in serious jeopardy.

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. The Democrats have a great record on turning good polls into poor results. But the polls never have been this good for them before.

The Democrats look better from a distance. Up close their protectionism and economic nationalism is less attractive than their environmentalism and progressive rhetoric. But there is no doubt who Europeans would choose (Adlai Stevenson famously said that he carried Europe on both his presidential bids - it was America that was the problem. And I would have had no problem voting for Stevenson.)

Hopefully this time they will pull it off - and Bush will become as lame a duck as Blair.

usa

How can the Democrats blow it from here?